Relación entre el desarrollo del sistema financiero y el crecimiento económico en Colombia
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2020
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Universidad de La Salle. Facultad de Economía, Empresa y Desarrollo Sostenible – FEEDS. Finanzas y Comercio Internacional
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Este proyecto investigativo busca analizar la relación entre el desarrollo del sistema financiero y el crecimiento económico en Colombia. Conocer cuál es la relación cobra relevancia, en primer lugar, porque el sistema financiero es de gran importancia para la economía en la medida que provee la liquidez que esta necesita, en segundo lugar, desde la perspectiva del crecimiento económico, esté es una de las principales responsabilidades del gobierno, pues al aumentar la producción se genera un beneficio en el empleo, los recaudos tributarios, el ingreso per cápita entre otros. Para ello se realizaron modelos econométricos multivariados con datos trimestrales para los periodos comprendidos entre 2000-2019 y 2001-2019, tomando como punto de partida variables macroeconómicas que permiten medir el crecimiento económico como el Producto Interno Bruto, asimismo M1, M2 y M3 como medida proxi del desarrollo financiero en Colombia. A continuación, se estimaron tres modelos econométricos de corrección de errores vectoriales (VEC), el primero entre PIB y M1, el segundo entre PIB y M2 y finalmente, uno entre PIB y M3. Los resultados obtenidos en los modelos multivariados en conjunto con la información teórica, permiten concluir que, en el corto plazo las relaciones fueron inversas en todos los modelos y en el largo plazo M1 presenta una relación directa sobre el PIB y el PIB tiene el mismo efecto sobre M2 y M3
This research project seeks to analyze whether in Colombia there is a relationship between the development of the financial system and economic growth. Knowing the relationship becomes relevant, firstly, because the financial system is of great importance to the economy insofar as it provides the liquidity it needs, secondly, from the perspective of economic growth, this is one of the main responsibilities of the government, because by increasing production a benefit is generated in employment, tax collections, per capita income, among others. For this, multivariate econometric models were carried out with quarterly data for the periods between 2000-2019 and 2001-2019, taking as a starting point macroeconomic variable that allow measuring economic growth such as Gross Domestic Product, also M1, M2 and M3 as a proxy measure of the financial development in Colombia. Next, three vector error correction (VEC) econometric models were estimated, the first between GDP and M1, the second between GDP and M2, and finally, one between GDP and M3. The results obtained in the multivariate models together with the theoretical information, allow us to conclude that, in the short term, the relationships were inverse in all the models and in the long term, M1 has a direct relationship on GDP and GDP has the same effect on M2 and M3
This research project seeks to analyze whether in Colombia there is a relationship between the development of the financial system and economic growth. Knowing the relationship becomes relevant, firstly, because the financial system is of great importance to the economy insofar as it provides the liquidity it needs, secondly, from the perspective of economic growth, this is one of the main responsibilities of the government, because by increasing production a benefit is generated in employment, tax collections, per capita income, among others. For this, multivariate econometric models were carried out with quarterly data for the periods between 2000-2019 and 2001-2019, taking as a starting point macroeconomic variable that allow measuring economic growth such as Gross Domestic Product, also M1, M2 and M3 as a proxy measure of the financial development in Colombia. Next, three vector error correction (VEC) econometric models were estimated, the first between GDP and M1, the second between GDP and M2, and finally, one between GDP and M3. The results obtained in the multivariate models together with the theoretical information, allow us to conclude that, in the short term, the relationships were inverse in all the models and in the long term, M1 has a direct relationship on GDP and GDP has the same effect on M2 and M3
Palabras clave
Desarrollo financiero, Crecimiento económico, Test de Raíz Unitaria, Cointegración, Modelo de series de tiempo multivariado, Financial Development, Economic Growth, Unit Root Test, Cointegration, Multivariate time series model