Análisis de los efectos del modelo TNT (Transable No Transable) en la balanza comercial de bienes y servicios en Colombia durante el periodo 2006-2015
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2016
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Universidad de La Salle. Facultad de Economía, Empresa y Desarrollo Sostenible – FEEDS. Economía
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El estudio de la balanza de pagos de los países es de vital importancia en un mundo que promueve en gran medida el comercio internacional. De esta manera, su análisis favorece el conocimiento sobre las transacciones que se efectúan entre un país y sus principales socios comerciales.En Colombia, la balanza de pagos cuenta corriente ha presentado un comportamiento deficitario, entre USD 2.000 millones hasta USD 19.000 millones, que se explica claramente por el resultado de la balanza comercial de bienes y servicios. Durante el periodo 2006-2015 se han presentado importantes oscilaciones en el comportamiento de la balanza comercial que se trasladan posteriormente a la balanza de pagos cuenta corriente.Describiendo la metodología y la composición de la balanza de pagos, determinando el peso y el comportamiento de la balanza comercial de bienes y servicios, sobre el nivel de la balanza de pagos cuenta corriente, y correlacionando el comportamiento de la balanza comercial de bienes y servicios en Colombia con el modelo Transables y no Transables (TNT) expuesto por Sachs (2002) y Wunder (1991) a través de una regresión lineal.Se encuentra que en este periodo la balanza comercial de bienes y servicios, se localizó en déficit, en 9 años de los 10 analizados. Debido a, el aumento de las importaciones y la disminución de las exportaciones de la balanza comercial de bienes y servicios transables al tiempo; Además se encontró que la balanza comercial de bienes y servicios, es explicada por los cambios en el índice de tasa de cambio real (ITCR), el producto interno Bruto (PIB) y la relación de los precios transables sobre los no transables
The study of the scale of payments, of the countries it performs vital importance in a world that promotes the international trade. Hereby, his analysis favors the knowledge on the transactions that are effected between a country and his principal commercial partners.In Colombia, the scale of payments current account has presented a deficit behavior, between USD 2.000 million up to USD 19.000 million, which one explains clearly for the result of the commercial scale of goods and services. During the period 2006-2015 have appeared important oscillations in the behavior of the commercial scale that they move later to the scale of payments current account.Describing the methodology and the composition of the scale of payments, determining the weight and the behavior of the commercial scale of goods and services, on the level of the scale of payments current account, and correlating the behavior of the commercial scale of goods and services in Colombia to the traded-nontraded goods (TNT) model exposed by Sachs (2002) and Wunder (1991) across a linear regression.One finds that in this period the commercial scale of goods and services, located in deficit, in 9 years of the 10 analyzed ones. Due to, the increase of the imports and the decrease of the exports of the commercial scale of goods and services traded to the time; in addition, one found that the commercial scale of goods and services, is explained by the changes in the index of real exchange rate (ITCR), Gross Domestic product (GDP) and the relation of the prices traded on them nontraded goods
The study of the scale of payments, of the countries it performs vital importance in a world that promotes the international trade. Hereby, his analysis favors the knowledge on the transactions that are effected between a country and his principal commercial partners.In Colombia, the scale of payments current account has presented a deficit behavior, between USD 2.000 million up to USD 19.000 million, which one explains clearly for the result of the commercial scale of goods and services. During the period 2006-2015 have appeared important oscillations in the behavior of the commercial scale that they move later to the scale of payments current account.Describing the methodology and the composition of the scale of payments, determining the weight and the behavior of the commercial scale of goods and services, on the level of the scale of payments current account, and correlating the behavior of the commercial scale of goods and services in Colombia to the traded-nontraded goods (TNT) model exposed by Sachs (2002) and Wunder (1991) across a linear regression.One finds that in this period the commercial scale of goods and services, located in deficit, in 9 years of the 10 analyzed ones. Due to, the increase of the imports and the decrease of the exports of the commercial scale of goods and services traded to the time; in addition, one found that the commercial scale of goods and services, is explained by the changes in the index of real exchange rate (ITCR), Gross Domestic product (GDP) and the relation of the prices traded on them nontraded goods
Palabras clave
Comercio internacional, Balanza comercial, Modelo transables y no transables (TNT), Balanza de pagos, International trade, Commercial scale, Traded-nontraded goods (TNT) model, Scale of payments, Comercio exterior, Economía internacional, Política comercial, International trade, International economic relations, Commercial policy