Diseño de un contrato de futuros sobre el oro en Colombia
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Fecha
2015
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Universidad de La Salle. Facultad de Economía, Empresa y Desarrollo Sostenible – FEEDS. Finanzas y Comercio Internacional
Descripción
El objetivo de esta investigación es el diseño de un contrato de futuros sobre el oro en Colombia, ya que el mercado bursátil no ofrece suficientes alternativas; lo que deriva en inversiones en otros sectores de la economía diferentes a éste. La investigación toma tanto el enfoque de Hull (2006) para la valoración del contrato, como un enfoque comparativo implementando un benchmarking industrial para la estructura. La investigación se divide en dos partes: entorno y análisis de resultados. La primera, contempla una metodología cualitativa de investigación evaluativa con instrumentos como entrevistas y revisión documental. La segunda, contempla una metodología cuantitativa de investigación ex post facto desarrollada a través de fórmulas específicas. En el desarrollo del contrato se determinó que el sector del oro se debe centrar en la disminución de los precios y la minería ilegal; escenarios que se pueden neutralizar con la adopción de futuros. Se discierne la similitud de los estándares internacionales en las especificaciones que proveen las características para el contrato diseñado. Así mismo, se establece que la bolsa apropiada para los futuros puede ser tanto la BVC como la BMC. Sin embargo, es necesario crear la infraestructura del clearing y la implementación de proyectos gubernamentales en ejecución de los futuros. El cálculo del precio teórico arrojó un valor igual al spot, estableciendo que se elude el arbitraje a pesar de desarrollar un modelo continuo que refleja la flexibilidad del mercado real. Finalmente, se presenta un único resultado el contrato de futuros sobre el oro en Colombia
The objective of this research is the draft of a gold futures contract in Colombia, due to the stock market by not offering enough alternatives; which leads to investment in other sectors of the economy different than stock market. The research approach takes both Hull (2006) for the assessment of the contract, as an approach comparative industrial benchmarking to implementing a structure. The research is divided into two parts: setting and analysis of results. The first one provides a qualitative methodology of evaluative research with instruments such as interviews and documentary review. The second one provides a quantitative methodology of research ex post facto developed through specific formulas. In the development of the contract it was determined that the gold sector should focus on the decline in international prices and the illegal mining; scenarios that can be neutralized by adopting future. The similarity within international standards of the specifications that provide the features for draft the contract is discerned. It also states that the appropriate stock market for future may be either the BVC as the BMC. However, it is necessary to create the infrastructure of clearing and implementation of government projects for the implementation of the futures market. The calculation of the theoretical price showed equal figures to the spot value, stating that arbitration is avoided despite the developing a continued model that reflects real market flexibility. Finally, it is produced the gold futures contract in Colombia as the only result
The objective of this research is the draft of a gold futures contract in Colombia, due to the stock market by not offering enough alternatives; which leads to investment in other sectors of the economy different than stock market. The research approach takes both Hull (2006) for the assessment of the contract, as an approach comparative industrial benchmarking to implementing a structure. The research is divided into two parts: setting and analysis of results. The first one provides a qualitative methodology of evaluative research with instruments such as interviews and documentary review. The second one provides a quantitative methodology of research ex post facto developed through specific formulas. In the development of the contract it was determined that the gold sector should focus on the decline in international prices and the illegal mining; scenarios that can be neutralized by adopting future. The similarity within international standards of the specifications that provide the features for draft the contract is discerned. It also states that the appropriate stock market for future may be either the BVC as the BMC. However, it is necessary to create the infrastructure of clearing and implementation of government projects for the implementation of the futures market. The calculation of the theoretical price showed equal figures to the spot value, stating that arbitration is avoided despite the developing a continued model that reflects real market flexibility. Finally, it is produced the gold futures contract in Colombia as the only result
Palabras clave
Mercado de futuros, Entorno aurífero, Cámara de compensación, Futures market, Gold sector, Clearing house.